Skripsi: ABSTRACT

Name : Rizki Nauli Siregar
Study Program : S1-Economics
Title : Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Indonesia’s Bilateral Trade: A Sectoral Analysis

This thesis is the first research performed with the aim to explicate sectoral analysis of exchange rate uncertainty’s impacts on Indonesia’s bilateral trade. Having a sample of annual trade data in the period between 1987 and 2006, the research allocates 10 years of sample under the adoption of fixed-exchange rate regime and 10 years under the adoption of free-floating exchange rate regime. The research also calculates medium term and long term exchange rate uncertainty between rupiah and the currencies of Indonesia’s main trading partners. Using gravity model, the research estimates the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade. This research finds that exchange rate uncertainty discourages two trade sectors of Indonesia’s bilateral trade but also encourages other six trade sectors of Indonesia’s bilateral trade.

Keywords:
Exchange rate uncertainty, bilateral trade, gravity model, Indonesia

thesis title

hopefully:

The Indonesian Agriculture Economy:

Trade Policy Analysis, Problems and Challenges

Soal UTS PE1

hehhehe.. masak soal yang gue buat kepilih jadi soal UTS PE1 yang kemarin dikeluarin....
hehhe... boleh lah ya gue merasa berkuasa dikit hahhahahha

ini dia soal bagian gue hehhehe:

1.Dari setiap pasangan barang di bawah ini, barang mana yang memiliki elastisitas permintaan yang lebih elastis. Mengapa ?
a.)buku wajib mata kuliah Matematika Ekonomi dan Bisnis atau novel Laskar Pelangi
b.)CD grup band Padi atau CD musik Indonesia secara umum
c.)penggunaan busway selama 6 bulan ke depan atau penggunaan busway selama 5 tahun ke depan
d.)beras atau tempe

2.Berikut adalah skedul permintaan Mahar terhadap T-shirt:
Harga Q permintaan (Y=Rp120ribu) Qpermintaan (Y=Rp150ribu)
5000 20 25
8000 16 22
11000 12 19
14000 8 16
17000 4 13

a. Dengan menggunakan metode midpoint, hitung elastisitas permintaan terhadap harga Mahar ketika harga T-shirt naik dari Rp5000 menjadi Rp8000 jika (i) pendapatan Mahar sebesar Rp120.000 dan (ii) pendapatan Mahar sebesar Rp150.000.
b. Hitung elastisitas permintaan terhadap pendapatan Mahar ketika pendapatan Mahar meningkat dari Rp120.000 menjadi Rp150.000 jika (i) harga T-shirt sebesar Rp14000 dan (ii) harga T-shirt sebesar Rp17000.


hehhehe...

mengulik kapitalisme

ternyata Keynes juga kapitalis...
ternyata Hayek yang menginspirasi Reagan dan Thatcher untuk menjadi neoliberalis...
ternyata Nikolas Sarkozy itu interventionist...
sepertinya udah ngga ada negara yang laissez-faire...
sepertinya Anglo-Saxon capitalist aka washington consensus bakal kolaps...
bahkan ke-depan, jangan kecewa kalo kapitalisme dan sosialisme berkonvergen... (mungkin dengan nama regulated capitalism, mungkin...)

Quoted from the Class of the History of Economics Thinking and Institutions

Prof. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti:
"Imagination is beyond knowledge."

National Education Day

Yep ! It's today.

i'm overwhelmed with all those reflections and evaluation the public, the government, the press made today. Too many disfunctionalities, too many incapabilities, too many distortions, here and there and everywhere in our beloved nation...

at least, i know i would be the one who worsens this whole problematic education system if i, one of those lucky enough enjoying 18millions rupiah subsidy per month, don't seize the whole benefit of studying in the best economics school in Indonesia...

it's at the cost of the whole society that we get this whole sophisticated education facilities especially we in University of Indonesia receive, and it should be more than individual benefit but also more positive externalities that the society should regain after...

BALI COP, UNFCCC

though it is quite late but just to refresh and keep up our save-our-earth spirit, i'll update you with a compact result of the last Bali COP... later but soon hehhehe

Too Narcist to Be True

I just saw the friendster profile of my class in campus (of course the gorgeous and fab Economics 2005 ).

i just realized that the photo was actually taken in my house. It was a very nice gathering wasn't it ?

But i should say my highest apologize again to those whose cars got scratched by unresponsible person. I am very sorry ....

If you are interested about our extrem narcissm, (be careful not to vomit!!! hahaha) please cordially visit :

http://profiles.friendster.com/27955419

Schedule for Economics UI 2005

Below is the schedule for the upcoming sixth semester provided for students of Economics UI. FYI, i just list classes available in the Department of Economics, therefore you may not find any optional classes schedule which are available in the Department of Management and Department of Accountancy.

The green-highlighted classes are classes which i plan to take.

Have fun by choosing and planning !! (i know it's not that easy, hehhe ;p)

Please pay attention that our compulsory classes for the sixth semester are:

1. Political Economics
2. Macroeconomics 2
3. Research Methodology

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)

The picture beside is surely not one of the economic model refered as the Social Accounting Matrix. But seems like I didn't pay a good attention during the class but was still unconciously aware of what the lecturer was talking about that i just drew a picture which is accidentally having similarities to a SAM here and there. Hehe, i even realized it just after i had finished the picture.

So, social accounting matrix (SAM) is an extended model of Input-Output (IO) Model. But unlike the IO model, SAM takes focus not only to equlibrium in economics framework but also social framework. SAM model can picturize the income distribution among factor of production, income distribution of households and even households' consumption patterns. Using the SAM model we can analyse impacts of an external shock such as change in taxation and subsidy regulation, shift in demand for export commodities, etc.

There is no formal form of SAM, because each SAM model of a country should be able to give overview of each peticular economy. In Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) publish the SAM data in each 5 years which is called Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi.

Rate of Return of the Investment on Human Capital

>>>Did you ever noticed that our campus can be so beautiful ?

>>>Did you ever notice the positive externalities the environment of our campus provides ?

>>>Have you ever considered maybe without the externalities our grade won't be that great and even we won't be ready for the post-campus life ?

A very good friend of mine said how lucky I am being one of a very limited amount of people having the right to bear the HUGE and IMPACTFUL status as a student of University of Indonesia, the only university granted the name of the whole nation !!! (which is in economics, this can be considered as another positive externality ).

By receiving so much positive externalities, we get even higher social benefit than we actually pay back. We are community's investment. Therefore we should realize also that as a means of investment, we should give return to the community back. In long run, this return can take forms of more economy's output, more job creation, less inequality, more accummulation of wealth (which further leads to structural transformation). I'm questionning, is it possible to count the rate of return of such human capital investment ? and is it possible to produce an approach to count the multiplier effect of every increase in the investment on human capital to the increase in economy's growth or welfare ?

Maybe, this could be the answer to the pro-cons about the constitutional requirement that the government should allocate 20% of its expenditure to education each year..